A few days ago, a grotesque controversy broke out over the number of migrants who died in the Mediterranean Sea following Minister Salvini’s statements, who, defending his anti-landing policy, recklessly stated: “In 2019 there were only two deaths in the Mediterranean”.

In a subsequent tweet then the minister published, in support of his theses, a table with UNHCR data regarding the bodies recovered and migrants dead/missing in the Mediterranean in the last 5 years. From this table it is immediately clear that in the first 4 months of 2019 the dead and missing in the Mediterranean are not 2 but 402, while the number of 2 refers to the bodies recovered. Moreover, the table of Salvini presents other inaccuracies, since it improperly compares the data of the first 4 months of 2019 with the data on the twelve months of the previous four years. In addition, the data mentioned by the minister refer to deaths
throughout the Mediterranean Sea, from the Turkish coasts to the Spanish ones, while the data he should have mentioned, possibly attributable to its policies, are those relating only to the Central Mediterranean. We think this is a clear example of how even numbers and data can be manipulated to support the most unlikely theses.

But what is really happening with the deaths in the Mediterranean? Are things really going to get better?

To be able to understand objectively the issue, it is necessary, first of all, to analyze credible data. The number of bodies recovered at sea cannot provide a reliable estimate of what is happening, since recovering the bodies of shipwreck victims is already very complicated by itself, the more it becomes in a sea emptied of rescue vessels, as now in the Central Mediterranean precisely as a result of the measures adopted by the Minister of the Interior. If we want to make a serious analysis, then we need to consider the estimates of the dead and missing. These numbers tell us that in the first four months of each year, the victims in the central Mediterranean were 1,936
in 2015, 966 in 2016, 1,021 in 2017, 379 in 2018 and finally 257 in 2019. So, is Salvini right? Is the number of deaths (however still tragically high) decreasing? In our opinion, absolutely not, for some reasons.

First of all, if we look at the number of migrants landed in Italy in the same 5-year period we see that it has drastically decreased: 26,228 in 2015, 27,926 in 2016, 37,235 in 2017, 9,467 in 2018 and 779 in 2019.

If we then go to to see the relationship between migrants who lost their lives trying to cross the Central Mediterranean and those who actually managed to reach the Italian coasts, we note that it rose from 3 per cent in 2017 to 32 per cent in 2019. In other words, the lethality of the crossing, or the risk of losing one’s life, has increased more than tenfold from 2017 to 2019. But there is another factor, in our opinion even more important, which denies the statements of Minister Salvini and concerns precisely the decrease of the number of landings firmly pursued by its policies. In fact, deaths in the Mediterranean are only one aspect of the migration crisis we are experiencing. We believe that analyzing only a part of a complex issue like this, does not lead to a partial truth but rather to a complete lie. Those people who no longer succeed leaving Libyan coasts remain trapped in the brutal violence affecting that country, both inside and outside the myriad of detention and kidnapping facilities for migrants. It is a fact beyond any reasonable doubt that these formal and informal centers are places of torture and death for migrants and it was also documented by the thousands of direct testimonies collected by Medici per i Diritti Umani operators (see http: //esodi.mediciperidirittiumani.org/). Whoever insists on denying this situation is either ignorant or in bad faith, and if he has political responsibilities he assumes a grave historical responsibility. It is therefore very likely that the fewer deaths in the Mediterranean are now being counterbalanced by more torture and more deaths among the thousands of migrants still trapped in Libya. The situation has therefore not improved in recent months for those who have the dignity and the human life at heart but, if possible, deteriorated.

What to do, therefore, in front of the current migration crisis challenge (it is worth to remind: forced migration in the vast majority of cases) coming, in particular, from sub-Saharan Africa?

The complexity of the issue requires a response that goes beyond the scope of this brief analysis. However, immediate intervention at the multilateral level is certainly necessary: evacuation of all migrants still detained in Libyan official detention centers to safe countries, capable of ensuring international protection. It would be at least a first step by the international community that today bears the responsibility for an almost total indifference to a tragedy that is marking our time.